Whatever the winter weather is like, it will be blamed on “the record low ice extent.” It is trivial to demonstrate that September ice extent has essentially no effect on the climate.
1) Sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean are at or close to the freezing point. The presence or absence of ice has little or no effect on the vapor pressure of water over the ice.
2) The sun is very low in the sky and the presence or absence of ice has little or no effect on the SW radiative balance
3) The Arctic Ocean is covered with clouds. Almost all of the small amount of light coming from the sun, reflects off the tops of the clouds.
In summary, there is no reason to believe that variations in September ice extent have any meaningful effect on the winter weather…
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