This article is a detailed complement to Matt Ridley’s Op-Ed today in the Wall Street Journal:
Evidence points to a further rise of just 1°C by 2100. The net effect on the planet may actually be beneficial.
Guest post by Nic Lewis
There has been much discussion on climate blogs of the leaked IPCC AR5 Working Group 1 Second Order Draft (SOD). Now that the SOD is freely available, I can refer to the contents of the leaked documents without breaching confidentiality restrictions.
I consider the most significant – but largely overlooked – revelation to be the substantial reduction since AR4 in estimates of aerosol forcing and uncertainty therein. This reduction has major implications for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). ECS can be estimated using a heat balance approach – comparing the change in global temperature between two periods with the corresponding change in…
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