Come on Andrew, you can get this.

...and Then There's Physics

Andrew Montford, an influential climate blogger in the UK, is – once again – suggesting that man made climate change is not clear because,

we are unable to demonstrate a statistically significant change in surface temperatures because of the difficulty in defining a statistical model that would describe the normal behaviour of surface temperatures

This seems to be based on work by someone called Doug Keenan, who argues that the Met Office admits that claims of significant temperature rise is untenable. Doug Keenan argues that significance means that the temperature rise could not be reasonably attributed to natural random variation. He then seems to argue that significance can only be determined using a statistical model. Furthermore, he suggests that there is a statistical model (driftless ARIMA(3,1,0)) that would allow us to conclude that the surface temperature could indeed be simply some random natural variation. Furthermore, he suggests…

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Interested in all things about the Planet.
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