This is a simple posting about what the doubling time of a virus means for our future expectations.
We can expect a 3 week or so doubling of cases of Ebola until such time as we gain control of the spread or develop an effective cure. That may take a while. So what happens until that point? How much worry and how much time?
So lets just list a set of “doubles” and realize that it is about 3 weeks between each set. We had our first (not flown in by a medical air ambulance) patient in Dallas. Now a couple of weeks later, our first home grown transmission (to his nurse, despite medical protective gear). So that is our first “double”, from 1 to 2.
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1K (that '1k' is about 1000)
In weeks, that’s roughly 3 x 9 or 27…
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